Circular No. 15/2010/TT-BTNMT stipulates the procedures for monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting tropical depressions (TD) and typhoons. This Circular applies to organizations and individuals conducting TD and typhoon forecasts under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and those organizations permitted to conduct forecasts within the territory and territorial waters of Vietnam.
적용 범위
Organizations and individuals conducting TD and typhoon forecasts under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment; organizations and individuals permitted to conduct TD and typhoon forecasts within the territory and territorial waters of Vietnam.
핵심 사항
- Organizations and individuals must monitor TD and typhoons on analysis maps, remote sensing information, numerical model forecast products, and information from international forecasting centers.
- Determine the position, intensity, and radius of strong winds of TD and typhoons through various methods.
- Forecast the position, direction, speed of movement, intensity, and radius of strong winds of TD and typhoons at forecast times.
- Compile the results of analysis and forecasting and complete the official bulletin five minutes before the broadcast time.
- Organizations and individuals involved are responsible for monitoring and forecasting TD and typhoons.
🌐 이 문서의 사회적 영향
- Enhance the ability to forecast and issue early warnings for TD and typhoons to reduce damage caused by natural disasters.
- Organizations and individuals need to invest in technology and resources to implement monitoring, analysis, and forecasting of TD and typhoons.
❓ 자주 묻는 질문
Which organizations are responsible for monitoring and forecasting TD and typhoons?
The National Hydro-Meteorological Center and affiliated Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Centers will direct and guide subordinate organizations. Regional Hydro-Meteorological Stations and provincial-level stations also participate in this process.
What methods are used to determine the position and intensity of TD and typhoons?
Determination of the position and intensity of TD and typhoons is conducted through traditional methods, satellite information, cloud image analysis using the Dvorak technique, numerical model forecasts, and confirmation results from the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Forecast Center.
Which organizations can conduct TD and typhoon forecasts?
Only organizations under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment or those permitted according to this Circular may conduct TD and typhoon forecasts within the territory and territorial waters of Vietnam.
How long does the TD and typhoon forecasting procedure last?
This Circular does not specify the exact forecasting duration. However, this procedure applies to periods from 12 to 72 hours.
What should organizations do when they detect TD and typhoons?
Upon detecting TD and typhoons, organizations must intensify monitoring and report to relevant authorities. They must compile the results of analysis and forecasting and complete the official bulletin five minutes before the broadcast time.
전문
CIRCULAR
Regulations on the process for forecasting tropical depression and typhoons
_______________________
MINISTER OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
Pursuant to Decree No. 25/2008/NĐ-CP dated March 4, 2008 of the Government stipulating the functions, tasks, powers, and organizational structure of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment;
Pursuant to Decision No. 245/2006/QĐ-TTg dated October 27, 2006, issued by the Prime Minister, regarding the regulations on reporting tropical depressions and typhoons, floods;
Considering the proposal of the Director of the Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change Department and the Head of the Legal Department,
c) Enterprises may be granted permission for no more than one block out of the total three dual-frequency blocks (FDD) B
Article 1. Scope of Regulation and Applicability
1. This Circular stipulates the procedures for monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting tropical depressions (hereinafter referred to as TD) and typhoons.
2. This Circular applies to:
a) Organizations and individuals implementing TD and typhoon forecasts under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment;
b) Organizations and individuals permitted to implement TD and typhoon forecasts within the territory and territorial waters of Vietnam based on the provisions of this Circular and their actual conditions and capabilities.
Article 2. Monitoring and detecting the formation of TD and typhoons
1. Monitoring on analysis and forecast maps
a) Signs of TD and typhoon appearance
Based on the results of weather map analysis, objective analysis maps, and forecast products obtained from numerical weather prediction models to determine the region where TD and typhoons are currently active or may form within 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours with the following conditions:
- Condition 1: A region with low-level pressure ≤ 1008 mb or a tropical cyclone vortex with a closed 1008 mb isobar;
- Condition 2: A region with a 24-hour pressure change ΔP24 ≤ -2.0 mb;
- Condition 3: Sea surface temperature SST in the forming region ≥ 27°C;0C;
- Condition 4: The presence of a tropical cyclone vortex at the 850 mb and 700 mb levels;
- Condition 5: The divergence of the streamlines at altitudes of 500 mb and above in the tropical cyclone forming region.
b) Evaluating the possibility of TD and typhoon appearance on weather maps according to the following possibilities:
- No possibility of TD and typhoon appearance
When condition 1 has not appeared or when condition 1 appears but conditions 2, 3, 4, and 5 as specified in point a, Clause 1, Article 2 of this Circular have not appeared.
- Possibility of TD and typhoon appearance
When condition 1 and one of conditions 2, 3, 4, and 5 as specified in point a, Clause 1, Article 2 of this Circular appear.
- High possibility of TD and typhoon appearance
When condition 1 and either condition 2 or 3 among conditions 2, 3, 4, and 5 as specified in point a, Clause 1, Article 2 of this Circular appear.
- Certain appearance of TD and typhoon
When all conditions as specified in point a, Clause 1, Article 2 of this Circular appear.
2. Monitoring the formation and development of TD and typhoons through remote sensing information
a) Forecasters must regularly examine satellite cloud images regarding cloud structure, cloud area, type of clouds, and cloud development over time using the Dvorak method according to T1 chart to detect the potential formation and development of TD and typhoons (Annex I attached to this Circular).
b) Or through software for analyzing geostationary and polar orbit satellite cloud images;
c) Or analyze other satellite products, shortwave images with frequencies of 85 GHz and 37 GHz to assess the formation of tropical cyclones;
d) Synthesize these results and evaluate the potential formation and development of tropical cyclones.
3. Monitoring the formation and development of TD and typhoons through numerical weather prediction model products (Annex II attached to this Circular).
4. Monitoring the analysis and forecast information of international typhoon forecasting centers.
a) Collecting complete weather system analysis bulletins and maps from the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Center at key times of 1 hour, 7 hours, 13 hours, and 19 hours, and secondary times of 4 hours, 10 hours, 16 hours, and 22 hours (Vietnamese time).
b) Regularly monitoring the analysis and forecast bulletins of tropical depressions and typhoons from the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Center.
c) Referencing forecast information on tropical depressions and typhoons from some international typhoon forecasting centers (Annex II attached to this Circular) related to activities in the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
d) Synthesizing the results to evaluate the potential formation of tropical depressions and typhoons.
5. Synthesis, analysis, and evaluation
a) In cases where there is no possibility of TD and typhoon appearance:
When in the forecast sea area, there is no possibility of TD and typhoon formation and development; satellite cloud images show convective cloud areas but cloud organization does not belong to any of the TD or typhoon cloud patterns; international typhoon forecasting center analysis and forecast information (excluding the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Center) does not mention or refer to TD or typhoons, forecasters should continue monitoring and processing at this level.
b) In cases where there is a possibility of TD and typhoon appearance:
When in the forecast sea area, there is a possibility of TD and typhoon formation; satellite cloud images show developing convective cloud areas, cloud organization appearing one of the TD or typhoon cloud patterns but cyclonic cloud swirls are not yet clear; some international typhoon forecasting centers (excluding the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Center) have mentioned TD or typhoons, forecasters must strengthen monitoring and report to relevant authorities.
c) In cases where there is a high possibility of TD and typhoon appearance:
When in the forecast sea area, there is a high possibility of TD and typhoon formation and development; satellite cloud images show relatively strong developing convective cloud areas, cloud organization appearing one of the TD or typhoon cloud patterns, cyclonic cloud swirls beginning to be clear; some international typhoon forecasting centers (excluding the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Center) have mentioned TD or typhoons, forecasters must report to relevant authorities and continuously strengthen monitoring.
d) In cases where TD and typhoon appearance is certain:
When in the forecast sea area, TD and typhoon formation and development are certain; satellite cloud images show strongly developing convective cloud areas, cloud organization appearing one of the TD or typhoon cloud patterns, cyclonic cloud swirls clearly in a cyclonic pattern; many international forecasting centers have mentioned TD or typhoons (including the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Center), forecasters must report and propose to relevant authorities about the form of notification and continue to strengthen continuous monitoring.
e) At the end of the forecast shift, a handover document must be prepared with assessments of the potential formation and activity of TD and typhoons (if already notified) over the next 24, 48, and 72 hours, and the contents that have been processed.
Article 3. Analysis of Tropical Depression and Typhoon
1. Determining initial parameters of tropical depression and typhoon
Initial parameters of tropical depression and typhoon include the center position, intensity expressed through the lowest air pressure (hereinafter abbreviated as Pmin) and the maximum wind speed (hereinafter abbreviated as V), direction and movement speed 24, 48 hours before and at the time of forecasting.minimum) and the maximum wind speed (hereinafter abbreviated as Vmax), direction, and movement speed 24, 48 hours prior and at the time of conducting the forecast.
a) Determining the center position of tropical depression and typhoon at the time of forecasting
- Determining the center position of tropical depression and typhoon using traditional methods (Appendix III attached to this Circular).
- Determining the center of tropical depression and typhoon from satellite information.
- Referring to the center position of tropical depression and typhoon based on analysis products from numerical forecast models.
- Determining the center of tropical depression and typhoon by analyzing radar images when the typhoon or tropical depression is within the radar surveillance area.
- Determining the center of tropical depression and typhoon by analyzing and evaluating the results determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's Tropical Cyclone Forecast Center and other international tropical cyclone forecast centers.
- Determining the center, direction, and movement speed of tropical depression and typhoon through a comprehensive analysis of the results of the above methods.
In cases where the determination results are scattered and reliability is low, the forecaster may determine the typhoon center within a square grid, each side being 1 degree of longitude and latitude.
b) Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon
Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon with the maximum wind speed in the vicinity of the center and gusts (if any) with units of Beaufort scale; the range of determining the maximum wind speed and gusts is between 1 to 2 consecutive wind scales:
- Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon through observational data on air pressure and wind speed in the vicinity of the center.
- Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon through the analysis of cloud images from satellites using the Dvorak method.
- Referring to the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon based on analysis products from numerical forecast models.
- Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon through the results determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's Tropical Cyclone Forecast Center and other international tropical cyclone forecast centers.
- Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon through a comprehensive analysis of the results of the above methods.
c) Determining the radius of the strong wind area
- Through observed wind speed data, the forecaster constructs a correlation diagram of wind speed and distance from the center of tropical depression and typhoon to determine the radius of strong wind areas for each level.
- Combining with the results of determining the strong wind area levels from the Japan Meteorological Agency's Tropical Cyclone Forecast Center and other international tropical cyclone forecast centers, the forecaster analyzes, evaluates, and estimates the radius (km) of the strong wind area at level 6 and level 10, detailed to quarter-circle.
2. Synthesizing the analysis of tropical depression and typhoon
a) Analyzing the characteristics of the development of tropical depression and typhoon in the last 6, 12, and 24 hours, especially in the closest period to the forecasting time; assessing the causes and dynamic thermal conditions affecting tropical depression and typhoon on synoptic, mesoscale, and microscale; determining the initial parameters of tropical depression and typhoon.
b) Analyzing and evaluating the development of meteorological factors related to the last 12 and 24 hours of tropical depression and typhoon; assessing the causes and dynamic thermal conditions affecting tropical depression and typhoon on synoptic, mesoscale, and local scale.
c) Analyzing and evaluating changes in the field of meteorological factors through synoptic signs, objective analysis results, and numerical forecast products with basic synoptic systems related to tropical depression and typhoon; assessing the potential for changes and development of the field of meteorological factors affecting tropical depression and typhoon in the next 12, 24, and 48 hours.
d) Analyzing and evaluating the development of tropical depression and typhoon through numerical model products; assessing the potential for changes and development of tropical depression and typhoon in the next 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.
đ) Analyzing and evaluating the forecast results of Vietnam, the Japan Meteorological Agency's Tropical Cyclone Forecast Center, and other international tropical cyclone forecast centers.
e) Determining the relationship and assessing the potential for changes in tropical depression and typhoon regarding intensity (Pmin), direction, movement speed, and operational range.Maximum Downhill Gradientfor each specific service package in the service provision contract between the ISP and the customer.max), direction, movement speed, and range of operation.
Article 4. Forecasting tropical depression and typhoon
1. Forecasting the position, direction, and speed of movement of tropical depression and typhoon at various forecast times.
a) Forecasting the position, direction, and speed of movement of tropical depression and typhoon using traditional methods.
b) Using the results of satellite cloud image analysis and weather radar (if available).
c) Using the results of numerical model forecasts regarding the position, direction, and speed of movement of tropical depression and typhoon for the next 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.
d) Using the results of forecasts about the position, direction, and speed of movement at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other international typhoon forecasting centers.
đ) Determining the position, direction, and speed of movement of tropical depression and typhoon at various forecast times through the synthesis of the results of the above methods and the assessment of forecast error at previous times.
2. Forecasting the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon at various forecast times.
a) Using the results of satellite cloud image analysis and weather radar (if available).
b) Using the results of numerical model forecasts regarding the intensity (P) of tropical depression and typhoon for the next 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.Maximum Downhill Gradientfor each specific service package in the service provision contract between the ISP and the customer.max) of the tropical depression, typhoon in the next 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.
c) Using the results of forecasts about the intensity (P) of tropical depression and typhoon at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other international typhoon forecasting centers.Maximum Downhill Gradientfor each specific service package in the service provision contract between the ISP and the customer.max) of the tropical depression, typhoon at the times of 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours from the Japan Meteorological Agency's Typhoon Forecast Center and other international typhoon forecasting centers.
d) Determining the intensity of tropical depression and typhoon at various forecast times through the synthesis of the results of the above methods.
3. Forecasting the radius of strong winds of tropical depression and typhoon at various forecast times.
a) Through the forecast intensity of tropical depression or typhoon at various forecast times, based on the results of determining the strong wind areas from international typhoon forecasting centers, forecasters analyze, evaluate, and estimate the radius (km) of the strong wind area at level 6 and level 10.
b) In cases of issuing "urgent typhoon warning" or "tropical depression near shore," forecasters must specifically determine the directly affected area and the landing zone.
4. Synthesizing results and conclusions.
a) In cases of issuing "typhoon over the South China Sea," "typhoon near shore," "urgent typhoon warning," or "tropical depression near shore," participants in the forecast duty shift must discuss and fill in their forecast results on the "tropical depression and typhoon forecast form" (Appendix IV attached to this Circular).
b) In cases of issuing hourly warnings, they must base on coastal Obstyph observation data, satellite cloud images, and weather radar images.
c) When additional detailed information is needed to perform tropical depression and typhoon forecasting, forecasters may request relevant stations to conduct Obstyph observations and stop such observations when no longer necessary.
d) Synthesize the results of analysis and forecasting, and complete the official bulletin five minutes before the issuance time.
Article 5. Responsibilities of organizations and individuals involved.
1. Organizations and individuals under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.
a) National Hydro-meteorological Center.
Direct and guide subordinate organizations to concretize the forecasting procedures, reception, and processing of information related to tropical depression and typhoon within their scope of responsibility based on the contents of this Circular and assigned functions and tasks, taking into account specific forecasting technology conditions; conduct reviews, approvals, and quality assessments of tropical depression and typhoon forecasts.
b) Central Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center under the National Hydro-meteorological Center.
Collect and process information related to tropical depression and typhoon globally, particularly in the Northwest Pacific and nationwide; promptly issue forecasts and notifications about tropical depression and typhoon according to authority; closely cooperate with regional hydro-meteorological stations under the National Hydro-meteorological Center to provide technical guidance for forecasting, notification, and information dissemination about tropical depression and typhoon.
c) Regional Hydro-meteorological Stations.
Collect and process information related to tropical depression and typhoon; promptly coordinate and unify opinions with the Central Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center to officially issue forecasts and notifications about tropical depression and typhoon that may affect the assigned region; professionally direct and unify with provincial and municipal hydro-meteorological centers under the central government regarding specific local forecasts.
d) Provincial and Municipal Hydro-meteorological Centers under the National Hydro-meteorological Center.
Receive forecasts and notifications about tropical depression and typhoon from the Central Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center and regional hydro-meteorological stations; concretize forecast bulletins (regarding impact duration, wind strength, rainfall) according to local characteristics and natural conditions.
2. Organizations and individuals permitted to carry out tropical depression and typhoon forecasting on Vietnamese territory and territorial waters.
Are responsible for the results of their tropical depression and typhoon forecasts; cooperate and share information, promptly notify relevant agencies and organizations of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment about unusual situations during the monitoring and forecasting of tropical depression and typhoon.
Article 6. Implementation and Effectiveness
1. This Circular takes effect from September 15, 2010.
2. The Minister, Heads of Ministries equivalent to Ministries, Heads of Government Agencies, Chairpersons of People's Committees of provinces and centrally governed cities, and related organizations and individuals are responsible for implementing the provisions of this Circular.
3. The Meteorology, Hydrology, and Climate Change Department is responsible for monitoring and inspecting the implementation of this Circular.
During implementation, if there are difficulties, organizations and individuals conducting forecasts should promptly report to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment for research and amendment./.
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